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What the latest Greek drama means for the euro – MoneyWeek – 365bet台湾官网_bet356体育投注网_www.666365.com

Theeuroplungedagainstthedollarforthesecondtimeintwodays(thefirstcameaftertheEuropeanCentralBankwaslessenthusiasticaboutfurtherinterestratehikesthananyonehadexpectedatitspressconferenceonThursday)。

Denialsswiftlyfollowed。

Butweallknowthateurozonepoliticiansareevenmoreaversetotruth-tellingthantheusualbreed。

Sureenough,itturnsoutthat–whileleavingtheeuroisawhileoffyet–therewasasecretGreek-relatedmeetingonFridaynight。

Theconclusion?

Jean-ClaudeJuncker,headoftheeurozonesfinanceministers,saidthatGreecedoesneedafurtheradjustmentprogramme。

Inotherwords,thebail-outhastobebigger,onewayoranother?

Thisisnothingthemarketsdidntalreadyknow

Allthatshappenedhereisthateurozoneofficialshavefinallyadmittedwhatthemarketshadknownforalongtime–Greeceisntgoingtogetoutofitscurrentpredicamentwithoutalotmorehelp,orwithoutwritingoffsomeofitsdebts。

Heresthestorysofar:Greecehasagreeda€110bnbailoutpackagefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheInternationalMonetaryFund。

Theideawasthatthiswouldtideitover,andhelpitmeetitsloanrepayments,untilitcouldsortoutitsnationalfinances(byraisingtaxes,cuttingspendingandembarkingonaprivatisationprogramme)。

Thenitwouldbeabletoreturntothemarketsforanymoneyitneededinthefuture。

Thatwasoverlyoptimistic,tosaytheleast。

AstheFinancialTimesputsit:economicreformshavestalled,theeconomyisinatailspin,andprogresstowardsamoderntaxcollectionsystemhasbeenslow。

Thatsaproblem,becausecomenextyear,Greecewillneedtoraiseanother€25bn-€30bn。

Ifthemarketsarentwillingtolendtothembythen–whichtheyalmostcertainlywontbe–thenthecountrywilleitherneedfurtherloans,orthepaybackperiodonexistingoneswillhavetobeextended。

Fornow,arevisedGreekplan,asReutersnotes,couldincludepushingfurtherintothefuturethetargetsforGreecetocutitsbudgetdeficit,easingthetermsofitsemergencyloans,andgivingitadditionalmoney。

Inshort,Greeceneedstobuymoretime。

Therealproblemwiththeeurozonepolitics

Thetroubleis,moretimemightnotbeenough。

ThesimpletruthisthatGreeceisintoodeepahole。

Reforminganailingeconomywhentherestoftheworldishealthyanddemandisstrong,isdifficultenough。

Makingchangeswhenglobalgrowthiswobbly,yourcurrency–theeuroisfartoostrongforyourneeds,andthepopulationalreadyfeelscrushedandputuponbyspendingcuts,isnighonimpossible。

Sowhileeurozoneofficialsarestillrulingoutanythingdrastic–suchasGreecerestructuringthedebtheldbyprivateinvestors(ienotpayingthembackallofwhattheyowethem)–marketsincreasinglyexpectthistohappen。

AchaoticGreekrestructuringwouldbeanightmare。

Youdendupwitharunoneurozonebanks,majorlossesfortheEuropeanCentralBankitself,andmorethanlikely,afresheurozonedominorunwhichthistime,mighttakedownSpain。

Itwouldnthavetobeadisasteriftheplanwasspelledoutclearlysothateveryonehadtimetoadjust。

Butitwouldrequirealevelofpoliticalcohesionandhonestythathassofarbeenabsentfromtheeurozone。

Sofornow,extendandpretend–lendGreecemoremoneyandcrossyourfingersthatitworks–willbethefavouredoption。

Buteventhisisnteasy。

Foronething,countriessuchasGermany(nottomentionBritain),mayfeelthattheyarejustthrowinggoodmoneyafterbad。

Butitsnotjusttheonesfundingthebail-outswhofeelaggrieved。

OneIrishministerisalreadycallingforIrelandsdebttoberescheduledtoo,ifGreecegetseasierterms。

AndPortugalwontbetoohappyifithastoagreetotermsonits€78bnbail-outthataretougherthanGreeceorIrelands。

Itallcomesdowntotheoneissuethathasplaguedtheeurozonesinceitscreation。

AsWolfgangMunchauputsitinthismorningsFT:Europespoliticalelitesareafraidtotellatruththateconomichistorianshaveknownforever:thatamonetaryunionwithoutapoliticalunionissimplynotviable。

EuropeeithertakesabigleaptowardsbecomingaUnitedStatesofEuropeoritbeginstosplinter。

Wewouldntliketobetontheoutcomeyet。

Butfromaninvestmentpointofview,wesuspectthattheeuroisabouttoexperienceastickypatch。

Ifyouareinterestedinbettingonthecurrencymarkets,youshouldsignupforMoneyWeekTrader,ourfreeemailwhereveteranspreadbetterJohnCBurfordshareshistipsandtacticsforimprovingyourprofits。


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MorningWord 110612 Likely Decisive Victory, Then Very Likely Fiscal Cliff Hell

MorningWord11/06/12?

BackonSept。

6thourmainmacromanEniswasonCNBCsFastMoneyHalftimeprogramwithanotherfairlyesteemedguest,hedgefundlegendLeonCooperman?

EnisandIhavehadafewconversationsaboutCoopermanscandidcommentsthatday,butjustyesterdayEnisremindedofCoopermansexpectationfortheSPXgiventhepotentialpresidentialelectionoutcomes:

fromtheroughly1400area?

aRomneyvictorywouldadd100?

pointstothespandanObama?

victorywouldprobablybemaybe?

a50-pointdecline?

Ithinkitisveryimportant?

Wereatacrucialpointin?

economichistoryofthecountry?

andIthinkwhathappensinNovemberisveryimportant?

Nowthatisjustonemansopinion,andthiscouldhavechangedbynow,butwhatiscleartousisthatalltheopinionsthatwehearandreadinthefinancialpressaboutwherestocksaregoingbasedontheelectionoutcomereallydontamounttoahillofbeans。

Thefactofthematteristhereareprobably100-200peopleintheworldwho?

determine?

theimmediatedirectionofthemarketaftersucha?

significantpolitical/marketevent,BigMoneyManagersatmutualfundsandhedgefundslikeCooperman?

Andhereisthething,theBigMoneyissortoflikeaMafia,theyhavetheirMeets,(theyusedtotalkonthephone,beforetheFedsstartingtappingthem)butmysensewouldbethattheycometoseethingsfairlysimilarly?

IfDonCoopermansuggeststhatwehave100pointsupona?

Romney?

win,and50pointsdownonanObamawin,hesmostlikelyprojectingwhohewantstowin,butthatsprobablyafairlycommonsentimentamongpeoplelikeCoopermanthatwe(thelittleguys)shouldbeawareofanyway。

Buttomorrow,thenewscyclewillquicklyturnbacktoEuropeandlameducksessionnegotiationsoverthefiscalcliffandIwouldbeverysurprisedtoseeanoutsizedmovedbasedonanoutcomethatpollshaveallowedmostpollwatchingmoneytogameaheadoftime。

LastnightIwasonFastMoneyandweweretaskedwithpickingstocks/sectorsthatshouldperformwell/poorlybasedonthepotentialoutcomes?

Oneofmyfellow?

panelists?

putitfairlyclearly,alotofthegoodnewsisinthestocks,soprobablynotwisetochasethem,whichalsoonlyleavespotentialdisappointmentforthosethathaverallied,likecoal?

Gamingthisprocesscanbeabitriskyandnotlikelytoprofitable?

BackinOctIusedCalendarPutSpreadstodefinetherangeofstockslikeJPMGSwiththehopeofowningNovPutscheaperintheeventofanObamawinandsomedownsidevolatilityinbanksstocks?

Thestocksremainedabovemystrikes,andthenIspreadtheputs,nowIownverticals?

Thiswastheextenttometryingtogametheoutcomeoftheelection,butIthinkaclear-cut?

decisive?

winforeithercandidatethiseveningshouldbeaveryshort-termpositivefortransparencyissues,butthenthe?

dialogue?

willquicklyfallintoFiscalCliffHellastheloserswillbefarlessinclinedtoplayniceonany?

compromise?

Thiscouldbringwithitsomevolatility,whichisinterestingtonoteadecentsizetradeintheVIXoptionsyesterday,someonebought35koftheNov20/30CallSpreadfor。

78。