Savers should look on the bright side – MoneyWeek

Worstofall,theresaspendthriftgovernment,eyeingupsaversassetsandtryingtofigureoutwaystoconfiscatethemtopayforitsownmistakes。

Butthen,whatsnew?

Thishasbeentheconditionofsaverssincetimeimmemorial。

Thegoodnewsisthatifyoucanseeoutthislatestattackonyourwealth,thecurrentslumpwillpresentyouwithsomegoodopportunities…

Savershavealwaysbeenunderattack

Saversareunderattack。

Butthisisnothingnew。

Thewholehistoryofsavingandgeneratingprivatewealthhasbeenthetaleofindividualstryingtostayaheadofgovernmentattemptstoconfiscateit,whetherthroughdirecttaxation,orthroughinflation。

Wejusthappentobewritinganewchapterrightnow。

Itsnotasifsavingwasencouragedbeforetheslump,forexample。

Allthroughtheboomtimes,thenotionwasthatsavingwaspointless。

Ifyouwerentleverageduptothehilt,preferablyinsomesortofproperty-relatedasset,thenyouwerestupidortimidorboth。

Andthetaxsystemhasbeenskewedtowardsencouragingspeculationandconsumptionratherthanthriftsoundinvestment。

Forexample,pensionfundswererobbedin1997,makinginvestmentinsharesandcompanieslessattractive,whichwasakeyfactorbehindthedisastrousmypropertywillbemypensionmyththattookholdwiththebuy-to-letboom。

Andletsnotforgetthefinancialsector。

Muchofthefundmanagementindustryiscomposedofmiddle-menwhoseprimaryfunctioninlifeistocreamoffasmuchofaninvestorsreturnsastheypossiblycanintheformoffeesandcommissionsandperformancebonuses。

Governmentsstillwanttoreturntothedaysofeasycredit

Soifyouwerehoping,asasaver,thatyoudbesomehowcongratulatedforyourforesightnowthatthegoodtimesareover–well,thatwasprobablywishfulthinking。

Afterall,thecheerleadersoftheboomnowlookstupid。

Theydidntseeanythingwrongwiththecreditbubble。

Sonowthatitsburst,theyneedtofindanotherculprittoblame。

Already,thenewbubble-deniernarrativeisthateverythingwouldhavebeenfineifonlytheFederalReservehadntletLehmanBrothersgotothewall。

Enjoyingthisarticle?

Signupforourfreedailyemail,MoneyMorning,toreceiveintelligentinvestmentadviceeveryweekday。

SignuptoMoneyMorning。

Thisnotionistripe–ortoshandamythaspanellistsatDavosthisyeardescribedit。

AsHarvardhistorianNiallFergusonpointsout,thisisacrisisoftoomuchbankleveragewhichbeganinAugustof2007andindeedhaditsrootbefore…thenotionthatsavingoneinvestmentbankcouldsomehowhavepreventedormitigatedthecrisisisafantasy。

Butthiswontstopgovernmentsfromtryingtoreturnthefinancialsystemtothegoodolddaysofeasycredit。

Andforthat,theyneedtomakedebtslessonerous。

Theresnosuchthingascontrolledinflation

Themostpoliticallyacceptable(i。

e。

underhandandsneaky)wayofrobbingsaverstopaytheindebted,istocreateinflation。

Andindeed,theconsensusseemstobemovingtowardstheideathataboutofcontrolledinflationisexactlywhatweneedtogetusoutofthismess。

Thisideathatinflationcanbecontrolledandappliedwithsurgicalprecisionlikedefibrillatorstoacollapsedeconomy,wouldbefunnyifitwasntforthefactthatpeopletakeitseriously。

Thewholeconceitofcentralbankingisbasedonthisideathattheeconomyislikeacar。

Tomaintainasteadypaceofgrowth,thecentralbankersjustneedtopresstheaccelerator(lowerinterestrates)orhitthebrake(raisethem)everysooften。

Butthecurrentcrisisdemonstratesfirmlythateconomiescantjustbefiddledwithlikeagiantmachine。

Ifcentralbanksandgovernmentsembarkoncreatinginflation,Imsuretheycancreateit。

WhatImnotconvincedofisthisideathattheycancontrolit。

Saversshouldntloseheart

Butsaversshouldntgettoodownhearted。

Foronething,inflationisfallingfornow。

Soeventhoughgettingadecentreturnonyoursavingsisnteasy,inrealterms,youshouldstillbeabletostopyourmoneyfrombecomingworthless(andifyourewillingtotakesomerisks,youcangetadecentincomefromothersourcesaswepointoutinthecurrentissueofMoneyWeek–ifyourenotasubscriber,youcansubscribetoMoneyWeekmagazine)。

Andmoretothepoint,atleastyouhavesomesavings。

Itsbettertohaveanesteggtodefend,thantobesittinginahomethatyoucanbarelyafford,withamaxed-outcreditcard,prayingthatyouwontloseyourjobinthenextroundofredundancies。

Thewholepointofsavinginthefirstplaceistohavesomecontroloveryourfuture。

Havingmoneyofyourowngivesyouindependenceandopportunities–asanyadolescentgettingtheirfirstpaypacketrealises。

Andasthefinancialcrisiscontinuestounfold,therellbeplentyofopportunitiesforpeoplewithcapital。

Sohangontoit,anddontbeashamedofbeingasaver。

Ourrecommendedarticlefortoday

Wereheadingforalong,deepdepression

Itsclearthatwearenotinjustacommon-or-gardenrecession;wereheadedforafull-blowndepression。

Timewillbetheonlyhealeranditcouldtakeanythingfromthreetosevenyears。

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Thisarticleistakenfromourfreedailyinvestmentemail,MoneyMorning。

SignuptoMoneyMorninghere。

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Mr Green Celebrates the Arrival of Monopoly and Gives Away €35,000 – CasinosOnline.com

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How to seek out healthy dividends – MoneyWeek

That’sgoodnewsgivenhowimportantdividendshavebeeninthepast–reinvesteddividendsaccountforthebulkoflong-termequityreturns。

TheEquityGiltstudycalculatesthat£100investedinBritishstocksin1899wouldnowbeworthjust£213ininflation-adjustedtermswithoutreinvestingtheincome,but£25,022ifthedividendincomeisadded。

Startingwith£100in1945,therespectiverealfiguresare£302and£4,531。

AndasRobertColepointsoutinTheTimes,“theenrichmentgarneredovermuchshorterperiodsremainsattractive”。

AddingreinvesteddividendstocapitalgainsoftheFTSE100since2002impliesalevelof7,500fortheindex;doingthesamefrom1988onwardsleavesitatovertwiceitscurrentlevel。

IntheUS,meanwhile,dividendshaveaccountedforalmosthalfoftheSP’sreturnoverthepast75years,saysPaulTracyonStreetauthority。

com。

Thestatisticsreflectthefactthatdividends,andhencedividendyields(theannualdividendpersharedividedbytheshareprice),riseovertime–theyhaveexpandedbyanaverageof6%-7%everyyearintheUKsince1945。

AsNickLouthpointsoutonMoney。

uk。

msn。

com,a20%yearlyriseinthedividendonastockyielding1%booststheyieldontheinitialinvestmentto5%inadecade。

Similarly,a6%annualdividendriseon£100ofstocksyielding4。

5%wouldalmosttripletheyieldto13。

1%ontheinitialinvestmentintwodecades。

Reinvesting,thatyieldwouldhaveboostedthetotalpayoutbyafactorof15。

Andallthisisbeforecapitalappreciation。

Furthermore,ahighyieldoftentempersshare-pricedeclines,asincomeseekerswillbedrawntoarisingyieldasthestockfalls;withoutadividend,thereisnosuchbuffer。

USdividendpayers“couldbecountedon”todeliverstrongerrelativereturnsindifficultmarketsthannon-payersintheUSbetween1970and2000,notesTracy。

Whenitcomestoassessingdividendstocks,agenerousyieldoftensignalsvalue,butanunusuallyhighonecanindicateafirmintrouble。

Seekoutfirmswithaconsistentrecordofgrowingdividends–companiesarealwayskeentoavoidupsettinginvestorsbycuttingpayouts。

Onewayofcheckingifastock’sdividendissecureiswiththedividendcoverratio(post-taxprofitdividedbythetotalamountpaidoutindividends–includedeveryMondayintheFTsharelistings)。

Ingeneral,coverofunder1。

5%maypresageacut,whileoverthreeiscomfortable,reckonsMotleyfool。

co。

uk。

Checkthenetcashpositiontoo:afirmundergoinganearningsslowdownwithplentyofcash“ismuchmorelikelytocarryonpayingthesamelevelofdividends”。

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