MorningWord 71613 Would You Rather $AAPL or $AMZN

MorningWord7/16/13?

SOhereisoneforyou,ifU。

S。

equitiesaregoingtocontinuetomakenewhighs,andperhapsrealizethetargetsofmanyWallStreetstrategistswellabove1700intheSPX,wouldyourathercontinuetoown(orbuy)AMZN,GOOG,PCLNmakingnewalltimehighsupaneyepopping22%,30%46%respectivelyytd,ortakeashotonsometechlaggards,highqualitycompaniesthathaveyettojointhepartylikeAAPL,FBorORCL,down19%,1%and4%respectivelyontheyear?

Fortradersthisisanageolddebate,buystrengthinaragingbullmarket,stickwithwhathasworked,and/ordabbleabitinwhatshouldworkiftherallytrulyaslegs,asitwillneedtobroadenout?

IguessifIwerealongonlyinvestor,andhadsomefabulousgainsinsinglenamesontheyearasthemarketisonceagainmakingnewhighs,Iwouldprobablybelookingtotakesomechipsoffofthetableandusesomeoftheprofitsfromwinnerstotrytocatchthenextwaveoftherally,ifinfactitdidcome。

Whichleadsmetomarketbreadthitisprettygood,asthechartofBloombergsindexofNYSENewHighsminusNewLowsshowsbelow,wearequicklyapproachingtheprevioushighsoftheyear?

Mysenseisthatfortherallytocontinuewewillneedtoseesomeparticipationbysomelargecaplaggards,thethingsthatgotusherecantcontinuetodoalotoftheheavylifting。

BloombergNYSENewHighsminusNewLows

Soifwewereplaying,WouldYouRather?

Idprobablybemoreinclinedtoplaysomeofthetechlaggardswithtrailingstopsthandiveintoorremainlongthefabulousperformersthathavegoneparabolic。

YesterdayinthisspaceIhighlightedsomerecentbreakoutstonewhighsinsinglenames,somethatdidsosuccessfully(HDJNJ)andsomethatwererejected(BAUPS)?

Thefactofthematteristhatthe?

breakoutisoneofthemostpowerfultechnicalpatternsthatexistandinmomentummarkets(likewearein)youaresupposedtoplaythemuntiltheystopworking?

Caseinpoint,everyonewantstohateAMZNsprofitability(includingmeattimes),yetthestockhassteadilybuiltsteamallyearforitsrecentbreaktonewhighs:

AMZN1yearchartfromBloomberg

Iguessnottoodifferentacomparisoninthelast9monthswouldbeAAPL,acompanywheremostpeoplelovethecompanyandtheproducts(likeAMZNcustomers)buthavebeenparticularlynegativeonthestock(meincluded)?

WhatsamazingaboutAAPLoflateisthatwebarelyeventalkaboutit,thefeverhasbrokenandthesentimentregardingthecompanysproductshasgottensobadthatmaybe,justmaybe,thestockissettingupforitsownbreakout(albeitnottonewhighs,theywontcomeforyears,ifever)?

Theoneyearchartbelowshowsthestockconsolidatingbelowthe50andthe100daymovingaverage,butwiththeovbiouslevelof$450asseriousneartermresistance:

AAPL1yrchartfromBloomberg

Whilethetechnicalsetupisintriguingfortraders,theresolutionofthischartwillcomefromthefundamentalsandgoodoldfashionedsentiment?

NextweekAAPLwillreportfiscalQ3earningsandanalystsexpectearningstodeclineawhopping22%yearoveryearsoexpectationsarentexactlyhigh,butwhatwillthefallbringinfrontofwhatshouldbeaniPhonerefresh?


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